Political Risk Latin America Blog @PolRiskLatam

Brazil’s Economic Policies Under President Rousseff

Posted in News and Articles by politicalrisklatam on September 1, 2010

by Thomas Trebat for Roubini Global Economics, August 31st, 2010.

I would be the first to admit that I am not very good at reading the political tea leaves in Brazil.  I once anticipated that Jose Serra would win the presidency – in 2002!  I even thought this pragmatic centrist had a good chance to win in 2010.  Of course, I never envisioned the emergence of .  Wrong again!   It now looks like Dilma in an absolute landslide and in the first round, no less.

All of this should disqualify me from speculating about the economic policies to be adopted by President-to-be Rouseff when she assumes office in January 2011.  But I am going to hazard some guesses anyway on the (dubious) theory that if you cannot forecast well, forecast often. 

I will start with a fairly safe call.  The new administration will go to some lengths to convey continuity with Lula in terms of policies and players.  After all, why rock the boat when the foreign investors are so happily on board?  (continue reading… )


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