Political Risk Latin America Blog @PolRiskLatam

Latin America politics: Election watch 2011

Posted in News and Articles, Political Risk by politicalrisklatam on December 28, 2010

by The Economist Intelligence Unit, December 21st, 2010.

Latin America’s electoral calendar will be relatively quiet in 2011, with only four countries slated to hold presidential and/or legislative elections. However, three others will have heated presidential races in 2012, and jostling before those contests will escalate next year. The outcomes of many of these races will be difficult to predict, as deteriorating economic and social conditions, notably crime, in some countries will make it tough for ruling parties to secure re-election. There may be sustained pressure on a few governments that leads to policy volatility as elections near, and the risk of social unrest may increase. Following is a digest of electoral activity in the region through 2012, in alphabetical order by country.

Argentina

In Argentina, the death in October of Néstor Kirchner, husband of Cristina Fernández as well as her predecessor as president, has left the 2011 presidential race wide open. We previously assumed that Mr Kirchner would run but fail to regain office in 2011. All eyes have now turned to Ms Fernández and to whether she will run next October on a wave of public sympathy.

Given Mr Kirchner’s importance as Ms Fernández’s personal and political partner, it is unclear whether she will have the desire to continue on her own. Moreover, it is uncertain whether, without a political operator of Mr Kirchner’s stature, she will retain the support of key members of the Frente para la Victoria (FV), the pro-Kirchner faction of the Peronist party. (…)

Dominican Republic (…)
Guatemala
(…)
Jamaica
(…)

Nicaragua (…)
Mexico (…)
Peru (…)
Venezuela (…)

(continue reading… )


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