The Trouble With the BRICs

by Jorge G. Castañeda for Foreign Policy, March 14th, 2011.

Why it’s too soon to give Brazil and India permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council.

As the so-called BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, have grown more and more influential in the world economy, their administrators and myriad pundits have inevitably concluded that they and other rising powers should also become more important actors in global politics. The insistence by Brazil and India for permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council, a similar push by China and Brazil for a greater say on climate change talks and on IMF and World Bank voting shares, and a greater voice for South Africa in all of these arenas are just a few examples of the BRICs’ growing boldness.

But as I noted last year in Foreign Affairs, the emerging powers are not ready for prime time. And never has this been clearer than now, with revolution sweeping the Middle East. It is the traditional powers in the West that will determine the international response to this crisis — not because they are favored by global institutions, but because their word is backed by military and diplomatic weight. In contrast, the world’s rising economies lack the ability — and the values — to project their power on the world stage.

Let’s back up a bit. By now, the growing economic clout of the new regional powers is indisputable. Their political strength, however, is less obvious. And more importantly, their entry into the halls of world governance would not necessarily strengthen the developing international legal regime. These new powers lack the same commitment as the older ones to supranational institutions and universal values such as human rights, the collective defense of democracy, a robust climate change framework, nuclear nonproliferation, and so forth. Hence, permanent seats on the Security Council for Brazil, India, and South Africa, coupled with greater participation by China, Pakistan, Indonesia, and even Mexico in international agencies or bodies, might weaken the very foundations of the liberal democratic order — although in this regard, their entrance would also make international bodies more globally representative. (continue reading… )

 

Obama’s Latin American Trip: Unlocking Hemispheric Partnerships

by Susan Segal for Council of the Americas – Americas Society, March 14th, 2011.

President Barack Obama embarks on his first trip to South and Central America since taking office when he visits Brazil, Chile, and El Salvador starting Saturday. The trip is long overdue. It now offers an enormous opportunity for Obama and the United States. Latin America is booming, with strong growth rates and historic levels of investment. But, most importantly, it is a part of the world with which we share so much in common, including values; an economic model; a strong commitment to democracy, human rights, and economic empowerment; and a belief that a vibrant, entrepreneurial private sector is critical. A successful trip could be measured as one in which Obama and the leaders of the visited countries better understand the shared vision before us. It has the potential to show our neighbors that we can build a partnership based on mutual respect that will endure because it is in the best interest of all parties.

The president will kick off his five-day tour in Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro. This stop in itself is a historic one; both leaders represent “firsts” for their respective countries, with Obama as the first African American U.S. president and Dilma Rousseff as the first Brazilian female president. Rousseff is just months into her presidency and has been vocal about her support for stronger U.S. ties. Obama’s “winning the future” strategy represents a huge opportunity, not just for the United States, but for the hemisphere as well.

In Brazil, there will be an official public sector and a private sector agenda—a theme of huge interest to the United States, given that Brazil represents 42 percent of the region’s GDP and just surpassed Italy as the seventh largest economy in the world. Furthermore, its market and rising middle class (36 million people have joined the middle class and 28 million have emerged from extreme poverty in Brazil since 2003) offer a market for U.S. exports. Growing Brazilian infrastructure needs present a huge opportunity for many U.S. companies. Washington can learn from Brazil’s 25-year-plus strategy to focus on alternative energy production while Brazilian social development programs such as its income-transfer program Bolsa Familia serve as a model for poverty reduction. (continue reading… )

Peru’ presidential election turns into a guessing game

by Merco Press News, March 15th, 2011.

With less than a month to Peru’s presidential election April 10, the tailing candidates have been advancing and the favourites have been loosing ground, according to the latest public opinion poll from Ipsps-Apoyo made public in the Lima media.

The leading candidate and former president Alejandro Toledo registered 26% support, down one percentage point from two months ago and Keiko Fujimori, daughter of imprisoned for-life former president Alberto Fujimori, lost three points and is down to 19% from 22%..

Lima’s former mayor Luis Castañeda also slid from 19% to 17%, while ultra nationalist Ollanta Humala climbed from 10% in January to 15% and business-darling and former Economy minister with Toledo, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski jumped from 5% to 9%.

“The fight is becoming particularly intense, highly competitive; even when Toledo retains the leading position he has stalled. I think he can make it to the run off but he can’t be that sure as he was a few months ago”, said Alfreto Torres, head of Ipsos-Apoyo. (continue reading… )

President Obama will underline ‘coincidences’ during his visit to Brazil

by Merco Press News, March 15th, 2011.

US ambassador in Brazil Thomas Shannon downplayed differences between Washington and Brasilia saying that coincidences are far greater and will be the core of discussions during the coming visit of US president Barack Obama next week end.

“Discrepancies are normal, particularly when the country is Brazil, a country with its own opinions but the convergence points are far more important that divergences”, said Ambassador Shannon in an interview with O Estado de Sao Paulo.

In recent years political differences in the approach to issues such as Cuba, Venezuela, Honduras, Middle East, among others have caused ‘some frictions’ between the US and Brazil but that “corresponds to relations between two big countries”, said the former US Under Secretary of State for Hemispheric Affairs.

Shannon said that the coming visit of President Obama next Saturday, which also includes Chile and El Salvador, is indicative of Washington’s special interest in Brazil and an acknowledgement of the role Brasilia plays as an emerging power. (continue reading… )

A Gross miscarriage of justice?

by D.A. for The Economist – Americas View, March 15th, 2011.

Barack Obama has tried to encourage Cuba’s government to liberalise by promoting “people-to-people” contact with the United States. Since becoming president, he has relaxed most limits on travel and money transfers to the island. Cuba’s ruling Castro brothers have indeed shown increasing flexibility of late, releasing dozens of political prisoners and legalising some private economic activity. Nonetheless, they do not seem interested in reciprocating America’s gestures of rapprochement. On March 12th Cuba sentenced Alan Gross, an employee of a company contracted by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), to 15 years in jail for crimes against the state.

Mr Gross, who worked for a firm called Development Alternatives Inc., was participating in a programme to improve internet access for Cuba’s Jews, which the government deemed “subversive”. His job allegedly involved distributing internet-connectivity devices, which are strictly controlled by the state, and possibly satellite equipment as well, which is banned. Foreigners arriving in the country are specifically asked to declare to customs officials whether they are carrying any satellite devices, and any that are found are swiftly confiscated. (continue reading… )

 

Obama’s Latin American Trip

by Patricio Navia for The Buenos Aires Herald, March 15th, 2011.

When President Obama arrives in Latin America on March 19, the world attention will lay elsewhere. News of the visit will find it difficult to compete with the aftermath of the earthquake in Japan and the ongoing developments of the nuclear crisis. If the potentially destabilizing crisis in Libya, with its worldwide impact, is already struggling to remain atop the world news section, it will be difficult for the expectedly uneventful Obama visit to capture media attention beyond the region.

Even within the United States, the ongoing debate on budget cuts will divert attention. The American reporters travelling with the President will be more concerned with the negotiations between Republicans and Democrats in Congress to avert a government shutdown than with the progress El Salvador, Chile and Brazil have made in consolidating their democracies and achieving sustained economic growth. The problems within the region, like the Nicaraguan-Costa Rican border dispute, the Kirchner government feuds with Washington, and the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, seem unimportant and almost irrelevant when compared with the potential ramifications of the Libya and Japan crises

If the world will not be paying much attention to the U.S. President’s visit to Latin America, many in Latin American will also be more concerned with the impact the earthquake in Japan will have over economic development in Asia and over the demand for Latin American export commodities. After all, increasing exports to Asia is the main force behind the rapid economic growth in most of Latin America in the last few years. (continue reading… )

 

Cristina Fernandez election campaign takes off with a resounding success

by Merco Press News, March 15th, 2011.

A surprise ruling party victory in Argentina’s first provincial election of the year gives President Cristina Fernandez a boost before her likely re-election bid in October. CFK ally Lucia Corpacci ousted the current governor of Catamarca province, who sought a third term in Sunday’s vote.

She will govern the sparsely populated north-western province, where an opposition coalition ruled for 20 years. Catamarca is home to just 368,000 of Argentina’s 40.1 million inhabitants.

Government officials painted the victory as a show of support for the president and her policies aimed at swift economic growth. Opposition leaders said it was more a vote against politicians who try to stay in power indefinitely.

“Objectively, the election is not very relevant because Catamarca is marginal,” said political analyst Manuel Mora y Araujo. “But it will be exploited to the president’s benefit.”
He added that President Cristina Kirchner’s campaigning in Catamarca had a positive impact since her approval ratings are good. (continue reading… )

All in the family

by The Economist – Americas View, March 15th, 2011.

As had been predicted for at least a year, Sandra Torres, Guatemala’s first lady, announced last week that she would seek to run in the country’s presidential election this September. Ms Torres has played a prominent role during the presidency of her husband, Álvaro Colom, heading the government’s anti-poverty programmes. Many say that behind the scenes she wields even greater influence over her mild-mannered spouse.

Before the election, the first lady faces a legal hurdle. Article 186 of Guatemala’s constitution bans relatives of the president from standing for office. “Relatives” is here defined as anyone who falls within the “fourth grade” of one’s own blood relatives—i.e., up to and including one’s cousins—and the “second grade” of one’s in-laws (up to grandparents and grandchildren). On first reading it is hard to see how Ms Torres could qualify. The decision will come down to the Constitutional Court, which is appointed by a complex three-part electoral college that many fear is open to nobbling.

Opinion polls suggest that even if Ms Torres manages to make it onto the ballot, she faces stiff competition from Otto Pérez Molina, a former general who now leads the right-wing Patriot Party. He promises a crackdown on the organised crime and corruption that has come to stalk Guatemala, where the murder rate has doubled since 2000. Althouhg Mr Pérez lost the 2007 election to Mr Colom, he is currently polling 43%, against Ms Torres’s 11%. (continue reading… )