Political Risk Latin America Blog @PolRiskLatam

Chile: Industrial Output Disappointing; Activity Indicators Robust

Posted in News and Articles, Political Risk by politicalrisklatam on April 1, 2011

by Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado for Roubini Global Economics, April st, 2011.

Industrial output stayed in negative territory in February; contracting 1.1% m/m (-0.5% m/m in January). On a yearly basis, industrial production decelerated sharply to 1.9% y/y (3.4% y/y 3MMA), surprising the consensus (4.5% y/y) and RGE (3.8% y/y) on the downside. Disappointing results in consumer (-1.9% y/y) and intermediate (3.4% y/y)—accounting for 97% of the index—pressed down.

Meanwhile, additional activity indicators continue to reflect a strong performance—with the exception of mining, which fell 4% y/y due to a copper contraction of 6.7% y/y. Electricity generation gained 2.1% y/y, as hydroelectric generation was affected by severe droughts. Construction licenses continued on a strong path with a 38% y/y increase led by housing projects, which accumulated over 50% of total permits. Finally, retail sales expanded 16.7% y/y, stronger than January’s 15.8% y/y, but fell slightly short of its 17.8% y/y 3MMA. Supermarket sales accelerated to 10.7% y/y from a 7.6% y/y 3MMA. (continue reading… )



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